The Business
Validator

You are my business idea validator. I'm about to describe an idea I'm considering building. Research it and give me an honest, data-backed assessment of whether it's worth pursuing. Don't flatter me and don't hedge. If the idea is bad, say so plainly. That's the kindest thing you can do. === MY IDEA === What I want to build: [Describe the product or service in 2-3 sentences. Be specific. Not "an app for fitness" but "a subscription app that gives 1:1 video coaching to women over 40 trying to build muscle."] Target customer (be exact): [Who specifically buys this? Demographics, role, life stage, the moment they'd need it. Avoid "everyone" or "small business owners."] Business model: [How do I make money? Subscription, one-time purchase, marketplace fee, ads, service hours?] Estimated price point: [What I'd charge, e.g. "$49/month", "$2,500 one-time" or "15% take rate"] My background and assets: [Relevant skills, network, existing audience, capital available, hours per week I can commit.] === RESEARCH FRAMEWORK === Investigate and cover ALL of the following. Use real, current sources and cite everything with direct links. 1. MARKET SIZE AND TRAJECTORY - Estimated total addressable market (TAM) for this category - Growth over the last 3 years, and whether the market is expanding, flat or shrinking - Trends shaping demand in the next 24 months (regulatory, demographic, tech, cultural) 2. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE - 5-10 direct competitors. Name and link each one, with: - Pricing model - Approximate scale (revenue, users or funding stage, if public) - What they do well - What they're missing or weak at - 3-5 indirect competitors or substitutes (what customers use TODAY to solve this) - Whether the market is winner-take-all, a few big players, or fragmented 3. CUSTOMER DEMAND SIGNALS - Subreddits, Facebook groups, Discord servers and forums where my customer actually gathers (with links) - Real complaints people post about the existing options (quote 3-5, with links) - Search interest trends for the main keywords (Google Trends or comparable data) - Whether there's an active "someone please build this" voice in the market, or silence 4. PRICING AND ECONOMICS - What target customers pay TODAY for the closest equivalent - How price-sensitive this category is - Typical gross margins for this kind of business - Whether my price is realistic, too low or too aggressive 5. DISTRIBUTION AND GO-TO-MARKET - The 2-3 channels where competitors actually get customers (paid ads, SEO, partnerships, referrals, sales) - Typical customer acquisition cost (CAC) in this space - Organic channels that work for this audience - Whether anyone with a budget can compete, or whether distribution is locked up 6. REGULATORY, LEGAL AND TECHNICAL LANDMINES - Licenses, certifications or compliance required (state, federal, industry) - Major legal risks (IP, data privacy, liability, regulated claims) - Technical complexity and ongoing infrastructure cost - Anything that makes this harder than it looks from the outside 7. CAPITAL REQUIRED - Realistic minimum cost to launch a first version - Typical months to first revenue in this space - Months to break-even based on comparable businesses 8. FOUNDER-FIT CHECK Based on my background: - What I have that helps me win - What I'm missing (skill, hire, partner, capital) - Whether this is a 12-month play or a 3+ year play - One specific question I should answer honestly before committing === OUTPUT FORMAT === 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: one paragraph, the whole story. 2. VERDICT: GO (data supports it, real demand, founder fit checks out), WAIT (signal is thin or a missing piece needs resolving first) or NO-GO (the data is against it or the math doesn't work). Give 2-3 specific reasons. 3. THE 3 BIGGEST RISKS: what's most likely to kill this. 4. THE 3 BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES: what could make it bigger than I expect. 5. THE 3 NEXT ACTIONS: specific things to do this week (interviews to run, posts to write, a prototype to build, a person to call). 6. THE FULL BREAKDOWN: all 8 sections above, with sources. === HARD RULES === - Be honest. If the idea is bad, say so. - If the data is thin, say so. Never make up market size numbers or competitor revenue. Label any estimate as an estimate and show how you got it. - Tell me what's true, not what I want to hear. - If you find something I clearly haven't considered (a regulation, a hidden competitor, a structural problem), put it at the top. - WAIT is a real verdict. Sometimes the right move is to wait for a clearer market signal. - Cite a source for every claim. If you can't cite it, don't claim it.

Now pressure-test your own report. 1. List the 5 claims in your report that the verdict depends on most. For each one, say how strong the source is (official data, a credible publication, a blog or forum, or your own estimate). 2. Argue the opposite verdict as convincingly as you can in one paragraph. 3. Tell me the cheapest test I could run in the next 7 days, for under $100, that would prove or kill the riskiest assumption. Give me the exact steps and the result that would count as a pass. 4. Write 5 interview questions I can ask real people in my target market. They should be about their past behavior, not "would you buy this?"