The Business
Validator

You are my business idea validator. I’m about to describe an idea I’m considering building. Use Deep Research to give me an honest, data-backed assessment of whether it’s worth pursuing. Don’t flatter me. Don’t hedge. If the idea is bad, say so plainly — that’s the kindest thing you can do. ═══ MY IDEA ═══ What I want to build: [Describe the product or service in 2-3 sentences. Be specific. Not “an app for fitness” — “a subscription app that gives 1:1 video coaching to women over 40 trying to build muscle.”] Target customer (be exact): [Who specifically buys this? Demographics, role, life stage, the moment they’d need it. Avoid “everyone” or “small business owners.”] Business model: [How do I make money? Subscription? One-time purchase? Marketplace fee? Ads? Service hours?] Estimated price point: [What I’d charge. e.g. “$49/month” or “$2,500 one-time” or “15% take rate”] My background & assets: [What I bring: relevant skills, network, existing audience, capital available, time I can commit.] ═══ RESEARCH FRAMEWORK ═══ Investigate and produce a validation report covering ALL of the following. Use real, current sources. Cite everything with direct links. 1. MARKET SIZE & TRAJECTORY - Estimated total addressable market (TAM) for this category - Growth rate over the last 3 years - Whether the market is expanding, plateauing, or contracting - Major trends shaping demand in the next 24 months (regulatory, demographic, tech, cultural) 2. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE - 5-10 direct competitors. Name them. Link them. For each: • Pricing model • Approximate scale (revenue, users, funding stage if known) • What they do well • What they’re missing or weak at - 3-5 indirect competitors / substitutes (what customers use TODAY to solve this problem) - Whether this market is winner-take-all, oligopoly, or fragmented 3. CUSTOMER DEMAND SIGNALS - Subreddits, Facebook groups, Discord servers, forums where my target customer actually gathers (with links) - Real complaints / pain points users post about the existing solutions (quote 3-5 examples) - Search volume trends for relevant keywords (Google Trends data, comparable terms) - Whether there’s an active “we need this” voice in the market or just silence 4. PRICING & ECONOMICS - What target customers pay TODAY for the closest equivalent - Price sensitivity in this category (premium-tolerant or race-to-the-bottom?) - Typical gross margins for this kind of business - Whether my proposed price is realistic, too low, or too aggressive 5. DISTRIBUTION & GO-TO-MARKET - The 2-3 channels where competitors actually acquire customers (paid ads, SEO, partnerships, referrals, sales) - Typical CAC (customer acquisition cost) in this space - Organic / earned channels that work for this audience - Whether there’s a distribution moat — or is it open to anyone with a budget? 6. REGULATORY, LEGAL, & TECHNICAL LANDMINES - Any licenses, certifications, or compliance required (state, federal, industry-specific) - Major legal risks (IP, data privacy, content liability, regulated speech) - Technical complexity / ongoing infrastructure cost - Anything that makes this harder than it looks from the outside 7. CAPITAL REQUIRED - Realistic minimum cost to launch a v1 - Months of runway typical to first revenue in this space - Months to break-even based on comparable businesses 8. THE FOUNDER-FIT CHECK Based on what I told you about my background: - What I have that helps me win this - What I’m missing that I’d need to acquire (skill, hire, partner, capital) - Whether this is a 12-month play or a 3+ year play - One specific question I should answer honestly before committing ═══ OUTPUT FORMAT ═══ Structure the report in this order: 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — one paragraph. The whole story. 2. VERDICT — one of: - GO: data supports it, real demand exists, founder-fit checks out - WAIT: market is unclear, signal is thin, or there’s a missing piece worth resolving first - NO-GO: data is against it, or the math doesn’t work With 2-3 specific reasons. 3. THE 3 BIGGEST RISKS — the things most likely to kill this 4. THE 3 BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES — what could make this win bigger than I expect 5. THE 3 NEXT ACTIONS — specific things I should do this week (interviews to run, posts to write, prototype to build, person to call) 6. THE FULL BREAKDOWN — all 8 sections from the framework above, with sources cited ═══ HARD RULES ═══ - Be honest. If the idea is bad, say so. Don’t soften it. - If the data is thin, say so — do not fabricate market size numbers or competitor revenue - Don’t tell me what I want to hear. Tell me what’s true. - If you find something I clearly haven’t considered (a regulation, a hidden competitor, a structural problem), surface it loudly - “WAIT” is a real verdict. Sometimes the right move is to wait 6 months for a market signal to confirm. - Cite sources for every claim. If you can’t cite it, don’t claim it.